How to Get Into an Ivy League College — Guaranteed. Would the rise of this kind of services worsen inequality and education arms race?
The Trouble With Harvard – The Ivy League is broken and only standardized tests can fix it. Steven Pinker’s response to William Deresiewicz’s article I linked to earlier.
How to see into the future — by Tim Harford
So what is the secret of looking into the future? Initial results from the Good Judgment Project suggest the following approaches. First, some basic training in probabilistic reasoning helps to produce better forecasts. Second, teams of good forecasters produce better results than good forecasters working alone. Third, actively open-minded people prosper as forecasters.
But the Good Judgment Project also hints at why so many experts are such terrible forecasters. It’s not so much that they lack training, teamwork and open-mindedness – although some of these qualities are in shorter supply than others. It’s that most forecasters aren’t actually seriously and single-mindedly trying to see into the future. If they were, they’d keep score and try to improve their predictions based on past errors. They don’t.
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